President’s Day Today.

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Markets were quiet today due to the US President’s Day Holiday. European bond markets were quiet and the UK and European Equity markets were slightly weaker following the withdrawal of Kraft’s bid for Unilever, however equities rallied into the close.

Commodities were mixed, gold was stronger and oil was a little better on the day.

There are some concerns on the way though for markets. The Trump Tax overhaul is starting to become a cause for concern for US equity markets as the time taken to release policy is becoming an issue. The Republicans already have a tax plan that is starting to run into headwinds and there is a belief that with n knowledge of Trump’s intentions that his policies could stall. Previously major tax reform initiatives that have passed were released in the first week or to post inauguration. Reagan released his by February 15, G W Bush released his by the February 8 and Obama released his massive tax initiative by the 17th of February. Time is running out. Notwithstanding there are also major headwinds in the form of how to remove Obamacare, Border tax adjusted plan and the White House’s own intentions.

Another battle is also being waged by statisticians and economists and that is over how economic data is being collated and released. This is of great concern as for example Trump’s version of unemployment is that with 93 million people of working age not working that this represents an unemployment rate of 40%. This does not take into account people who choose not to work, people who cannot work because of things like ill health and people who could be undergoing retraining and a number of other reasons. Trump’s versions of facts are becoming rapidly blurred and that’s probably the intention to make people not believe anything other than what they may believe and that’s Gingrich’s view and why fake news is in fact real. Give people what they want to believe.

Aussie Market Today.

Today will be quiet with the US away on a holiday and Europe quiet.

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