Flashing again.

At a time when the U.S. may need to stimulate the economy, the coffers may well be bare. The budget deficit is growing and spending is now double what is being received in revenue. Read More

Brexit A Go-Go.

Theresa May went to the UK Parliament to vote for Brexit in essence and a vote of confidence in her. Markets were hushed in anticipation and ready to pounce. Read More

Reasons to be cheerful. Part 3.

Tariffs were on the agenda. China signaled it may cut tariffs on auto imports whilst it negotiates with the U.S. For bond investors, volumes were thin, a respite from the helter-skelter buying of the past few weeks. Read More

Reasons to be cheerful?

Whatever the market thought about a resolution on trade issues between the U.S. and China, we now know that it is going to be difficult. Read More

All I want for Christmas.

That’s a comment you will hear a lot this time of year. For bond traders, Christmas came early. However, there may be a pullback as the market digests $75bn of Treasury issuance and an inflation number due shortly. Read More

Shape shifters.

The spread between (US) 3-yr and 5-yr fell to negative 0.6bp for the first time in a decade, indicating that the bond market is telling the Fed that its tightening cycle may be towards its end. Read More

Shaken not stirred.

The IMF has downgraded its forecast for growth and is now warning things could get worse courtesy of trade tariffs and trade uncertainty caused by the U.S. Read More

Ahh, relief.

Good news flooded in from various parts. The Italians are behaving, Brexit is proceeding with the EU and May is happy. The surge in oil price was seen as positive. All is good for the moment. Read More

Tales Grim.

The oil market will start to feel the pulls and strains of a weak oil price and that probably does not bode well for junk spreads nor probably triple-B spreads. Read More

The Thanksgiving put.

Intriguingly, this holiday season is shaping up as being rather important for the psyche heading into 2019. Robust sales will help ease October’s pain at a time when many expect further rate hikes. Read More