Flashing again.

December 14, 2018 At a time when the U.S. may need to stimulate the economy, the coffers may well be bare. The budget deficit is growing and spending is now double what is being received in revenue.

Brexit A Go-Go.

December 13, 2018 Theresa May went to the UK Parliament to vote for Brexit in essence and a vote of confidence in her. Markets were hushed in anticipation and ready to pounce.

Reasons to be cheerful. Part 3.

December 12, 2018 Tariffs were on the agenda. China signaled it may cut tariffs on auto imports whilst it negotiates with the U.S. For bond investors, volumes were thin, a respite from the helter-skelter buying of the past few weeks.

Reasons to be cheerful?

December 11, 2018 Whatever the market thought about a resolution on trade issues between the U.S. and China, we now know that it is going to be difficult.

All I want for Christmas.

December 10, 2018 That’s a comment you will hear a lot this time of year. For bond traders, Christmas came early. However, there may be a pullback as the market digests $75bn of Treasury issuance and an inflation number due shortly.

Shape shifters.

December 3, 2018 The spread between (US) 3-yr and 5-yr fell to negative 0.6bp for the first time in a decade, indicating that the bond market is telling the Fed that its tightening cycle may be towards its end.

Shaken not stirred.

November 30, 2018 The IMF has downgraded its forecast for growth and is now warning things could get worse courtesy of trade tariffs and trade uncertainty caused by the U.S.

Ahh, relief.

November 26, 2018 Good news flooded in from various parts. The Italians are behaving, Brexit is proceeding with the EU and May is happy. The surge in oil price was seen as positive. All is good for the moment.

Tales Grim.

November 25, 2018 The oil market will start to feel the pulls and strains of a weak oil price and that probably does not bode well for junk spreads nor probably triple-B spreads.