Where to hide?

November 5, 2018 A record $83 bio of T notes and bonds will be issued and everyone is on a knife edge because we also have Trump talking about tariffs on, tariffs off.


November 2, 2018 The stock rally over the past three days is the best for two years and all this encouragement and all this optimism stems from one little tweet from Trump claiming progress in trade negotiations.

Bittersweet symphony.

October 31, 2018 For bonds, it was very much a risk on day. A somewhat bitter day. The long end was spooked by Treasury saying they would issue more LT debt this quarter in an attempt to steepen the yield curve.

October Run-Out Sale.

October 29, 2018 Some $8tr have been wiped from equities globally this month. The cleansing looks likely to continue. The fear of a weaker economy is partly driving the downturn and so too earnings.

Sign says.

October 29, 2018 So what is driving market concerns? Earnings are high but can business carry on at the same pace? Perhaps it’s because Nirvana is ending and that Trump speak won’t get the markets higher.

It was just a dream.

October 26, 2018 Wednesday must have been a bad dream because everything that was good was bad.  On Thursday, stocks recovered most of the losses. Market forces rewarded companies that had good earnings.

The Omen.

October 25, 2018 Uncertainty is driving markets. Politics both in the US and elsewhere is causing consternation and uncertainty. European dynamics between the EU, Brexit and Italy are making waves.

Flatter the curve.

October 23, 2018 The curve may steepen as markets adjust to increased issuance.  But given the number of short bonds issued lately, it may flatten first. Bond yields could rise sharply and that could choke growth.

Buyers beware. What’s next?

October 22, 2018 What’s next may come in the form of higher bond yields, it could be labeling China as a currency manipulator under Mnuchin's new definitions and guidelines, or it could simply be poor data.