April 9, 2019
The reasons why bonds are rallying at present - apart from concerns over trade - are low inflation, low growth potential, and the dovish stance of central banks. Bonds look attractive under those conditions.
April 8, 2019
A fall in rates may be needed to appease Trump. The credibility of the Fed as an independent central bank could diminish. And one worries about how Trump's new appointees will react if Trump shows his displeasure.
April 5, 2019
Credit high grade and junk and stocks are all in a similar place. In the absence of a catalyst to change and an economy that is at the lower end of the Goldilocks zone, it appears as though junk’s buoyant run will continue.
April 3, 2019
Markets have been awash lately with stories of a looming recession. The soothsayers cast their nets far and wide and the entrails of the slaughtered market revealed the yields on the 3-month -10-year treasury bond had inverted.
March 29, 2019
The market at present is reminiscent of a hamster on a wheel running aimlessly. Bonds rally a little, equities sell a little, bonds sell a little and equities rally a little. Both have somehow achieved a lot in what appears to be just aimless movements.
March 27, 2019
Markets staged a recovery of sorts. Only time will tell if the bounce is a recovery or a dead cat bounce. Bonds were steady even as some bearish sentiment on risk assets waned and views that the selling may have been overdone.
March 26, 2019
How much further will treasuries fall and what does this say about not only the U.S. economy but the global economy as well? Generally, a low long rate means the prospects for the economy are muted and if output slows then stocks slow.
March 22, 2019
Who would have thought that after yesterday’s actions by the FOMC that the market would rally? It's hard to believe but markets - bonds, commodities, and stocks - all rallied because once again the Fed was going to hold rates steady.
March 21, 2019
So, rates are coming down, well eventually. We knew that anyway. Why should the market react this way? It’s not really new news. The answer lies somewhere between expected news and announced.