May 3, 2019
Following yesterday's comments from Powell, markets have continued to underperform. Its as if the markets got their thoughts wrong regarding Powell’s comments earlier in the year. The markets wanted a sugar hit but no sugar was forthcoming.
May 2, 2019
Whipsawing. That’s what stocks and bonds are doing. The Fed held rates steady and the markets were a little surprised. Powell said in a nutshell that inflation was transitory and that the Fed had no bias to ease or tighten policy.
May 1, 2019
Trump decided that with the FOMC meeting today, it would be a good opportunity to tell the Fed that rates should be cut steeply. He criticised the Fed for “incessantly lifting rates amid wonderfully low inflation”.
April 30, 2019
We know we are in a bull market because investors are piling into risk. Banks are re-establishing CDO desks. (Remember them? They were part of the problem in 2008.) And that is being done to sate investor demand.
April 26, 2019
On a day where the expectations were for the rally to continue on the back of solid earnings, something happened. The market stalled. The earnings data until now has been supportive and really has not changed.
April 24, 2019
Records are meant to be broken and the Nasdaq and S&P 500 both finished at new highs because of better than expected earnings. The Fed put policy on hold earlier in the year and that dovish shift helped reignite the stock market.
April 18, 2019
A new approach in the Fed towards inflation is looming. The theory is that the target inflation rate will now be an average. Thus, inflation will be allowed to overshoot a targeted level without the Fed responding with a tightening.
April 17, 2019
The theme of the day was earnings and that’s where the confusion started. There is no consistent theme and the earnings releases are not giving a sense of the strength of the U.S. economy nor a sense of what is motivating consumers.
April 9, 2019
The reasons why bonds are rallying at present - apart from concerns over trade - are low inflation, low growth potential, and the dovish stance of central banks. Bonds look attractive under those conditions.