Bank greed and latent risks.

October 8, 2018
The Royal Commission into Banking suggests that performance-based increases in the Big 4 banks fostered cultures where greed trumped controls in treating customers fairly.

Turning tide to reveal more credit uglies.

September 13, 2018
The saying goes that a rising tide floats all boats. In the land of credit, it has been a king tide enabling almost anyone to get a loan or issue a bond – as long the interest paid was high enough.

China – no hard landing – yet.

August 16, 2018
China’s government policy decisions are increasingly signaling near-term economic stability as a priority. This means the Australian economy is unlikely to suffer a shock from its largest trading partner in the next 6 to 12 months.

Our double Minsky risk.

July 2, 2018
The good times have long rolled on for both China and Australia. The concern is, as the famous U.S. economist Hyman Minsky said, “the longer things are stable, the more unstable they will be when the crisis hits.”

Trying to win the relatively ugly contest.

May 28, 2018
As a corporate bond fund manager, our quest in this environment is to be the least ugly. Protect capital, beat deposits and then ready ourselves for improving returns as investment conditions improve is how we plan to manage our funds.

Can the interest-only bomb be defused?

March 18, 2018
In our view, the Australian residential property market is a large debt-fueled financial bomb. To diffuse the situation requires APRA to up the ante on banks de-risking and hope the market backdrop remains benign. 

History will not be kind to them.

February 18, 2018
Years from now, when historians look at the “big ease” after the “great recession” of 2008, we suspect the reviews of some central bankers of the recent era will not be favourable.